Why Kenya Is Considered High Climate Risk For Development Banks – Global Issues

• by Joyce Chimbi (in nairobi)
• Wednesday, August 07, 2024
• Inter Press Service

Climate change is a change in temperature and weather over a long period of time. Climate risk is the potential harm caused by climate change, such as financial, social, and environmental destruction and loss of life. Country-specific climate risk profiles are a summary of long-term climate analysis, showing how variability in climate patterns affects health and well-being.

Countries are advised to use these profiles to inform their development agenda, as failure to do so may seriously hamper the achievement of established development goals. For example, uncertainty about weather conditions has a negative impact on certain sectors of the Kenyan economy.

This includes agriculture, tourism, horticulture, livestock and pastoralism, and forestry products. About 98 percent of agriculture is provided by rain. Using climate risk projections, the country can invest in irrigation to reduce the impact of climate change on the sector, as about 75 percent of Kenyans live off agriculture.

The latest Kenya climate provides a two-decade climate summary from 1991 to 2020, revealing that about 68 percent of natural disasters in Kenya are caused by extreme weather events, mainly floods and droughts. The remaining 32 percent represent epidemics.

High Temperatures Cause Frequent, Severe Droughts

In total, 16 drought events have been recorded from 1991 to 2020, affecting millions of people and causing damages estimated at USD 1.5 billion. Although floods are recent events in Kenya they are becoming more frequent, resulting in 45 flood events in the same period. While the drought pattern began to emerge back in 1975, the flood pattern has begun to emerge from 2012 to 2020.

The recurring pattern of droughts and floods cost the country about 3 to 5 percent of its annual GDP. In the past two decades, Kenya’s average annual temperature was 24.2 degrees Celsius—a high of 30.3 degrees Celsius and a low of 18.3 degrees Celsius.

To give an idea of ​​average temperatures in Kenya, 2023 was the hottest year on record and 2024 is following this trend. According to the Gilbert Ouma Professor Osizayo, Meteorology, University of Nairobi writing in The Conversation the capital city of Nairobi temperatures are average, between 24°C and 25°C on the high side and 17°C-18°C on the lower side.

“These are usually very comfortable temperatures. However, in the period of December-January-February, the maximum temperatures are usually high, between 26°C and 27°C.

“This year, the temperature in February has increased to between 29°C and 30°C, even reaching 31°C. This is about 6°C above Nairobi’s normal temperatures. That’s a big difference and our bodies definitely feel it. If such an increase continues for a long time, it can lead to heat.

Drought has been a pressing and ongoing problem in Kenya. Since 1975, drought cycles have typically occurred every 10 years. But as climate change accelerates in both frequency and severity, the drought cycle has decreased from every 10 years to every five years, to every two to three years.

Each year there is an annual drought and food shortages and the regularity of very dry periods make it difficult for the country to go through another drought.

History of Drought Cycles in Kenya From 1991 to 2020

Drought is common in Kenya. In 1991-1992, more than 1.5 million people were affected by drought. This was followed by another cycle of widespread drought in 1995-1996 that affected at least 1.4 million people.

In January 1997, the government declared the drought a national disaster, which affected more than two million people, and the famine continued until 1998. Soon after, in 1999-2000, an estimated 4.4 million people needed food assistance due to severe hardship. hunger. As for natural disasters, this was declared the worst in the previous 37 years.

The 1998-2000 drought cost the country an estimated USD 2.8 billion, and this was due to crop loss and livestock loss, forest fires, damage to fisheries, reduced hydroelectricity, reduced industrial production and reduced water supply.

In 2004, the failure of the long March to June rains led to a severe drought that left more than three million Kenyans in need of emergency food assistance. In December 2005, the government declared the drought a national disaster, affecting at least 2.5 million people in northern Kenya alone.

The 2008 drought affected 1.4 million people and a total of 10 million people were at risk of starvation after harvests failed due to drought in late 2009 and early 2010. and cost more than USD 1.7 billion in restoration.

There are 47 counties in Kenya. With only 20 percent of Kenya receiving high and regular rainfall, Kenya’s arid and semi-arid zones (ASAL) comprise 18 to 20 of the poorest regions, which are most vulnerable to increased desertification and periods of drought.

ASAL regions have endured three severe droughts from 2010 to 2020. The 2010-2011 period was severe and widespread, affecting at least 3.7 million people, causing USD 12.1 billion in damages and losses, and costing more than USD 1.7 billion in rehabilitation and reconstruction needs. .

That cycle was followed by the 2016–2017 drought. The 2020–2022 famine, which was more severe, prolonged and widespread as more than 4.2 million people, or 24 percent of the ASAL population, were experiencing high levels of food insecurity.

Overview of Natural Disaster Incidence in Kenya, 1991–2020

Kenya is increasingly enduring periods of heavy, heavy rain. During this period, there were a total of 45 flood events, directly affecting more than 2.5 million people and causing an estimated damage of USD 137 million. These events occurred in 1997, 1998, 2002, 2012 and 2020, as they were short, they are frequent and intense.

Unlike drought and famine, Kenya’s history with floods is very short. There were several consecutive droughts from 1991 to 1997. Since 1997, a pattern of floods began to appear in this East African country.

It all started with the historic heavy and deadly El Nino floods of 1997-1998 that spread and affected 1.5 million people. This was followed by the floods of 2002, which affected 150,000 people. Kenya experienced floods almost every year from 2010 to 2020.

Anticipated risks are moving forward

“From 2020 to 2050, projections show that ASAL regions will continue to experience decreasing rainfall. Temperatures in the country will continue to rise by 1.7 degrees Celsius in 2050 and further rise by about 3.5 degrees Celsius before the end of this century. climate change will increase our climate vulnerability,” Mildred Nthiga, an independent climate change researcher in East Africa, told IPS.

“We will have more frequent and damaging floods, and this will be followed by longer periods of drought. We have already started to worry about landslides and landslides, and this will be a huge concern, especially in the highlands.”

Emphasizing that increased soil erosion and waterlogging of crops will significantly affect agricultural productivity, reduce yields and increase food security. There will also be major economic losses, major damage to farms and infrastructure.

Even worse, as has been seen in the recent deadly floods of 2024—human causes. This will deepen poverty and hunger in rural areas, and hinder Kenya’s progress towards achieving the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.

Note: This feature is published with the support of the Open Society Foundations.

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© Inter Press Service (2024) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Inter Press Service