Ukraine developments undermine Putin’s image as ‘Mr Security’

Kursk.

It was one of the first words I wrote and spoke as a BBC reporter.

In 2000, I reported on the sinking of the Kursk submarine in the icy waters of the Barents Sea. One hundred and eighteen submariners were killed.

Vladimir Putin had been president for less than half a year. I still remember Russian TV channels criticizing him for his handling of the tragedy.

This week marked 24 years since the sinking of the K-141 Kursk. And, again, the name Kursk fills my despatches from Russia. This time Kursk Region, where the Ukrainian army launched a surprise attack and where they have occupied the area for nine days now.

Same word.

But Russia 2024 is very different from Russia 2000.

This time on Russian TV there is no criticism of President Putin; there is no doubt in his decision-making; there is no suggestion that his invasion of Ukraine led to this dramatic moment. Then again, the Kremlin has had a quarter of a century to establish tight control over Russian media and messaging.

However, will these events hurt Vladimir Putin?

A question I have been asked many times over the past two and a half years:

• 2022 when Ukraine sinks the warship Moskva, the flag of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.
• and a few months later after the lightning of the Russian army retreating in the northeast of Ukraine
• and again in 2023 during the Wagner mutiny, when armed forces marched on Moscow – a direct challenge to Vladimir Putin’s authority.

President Putin went through all that, apparently unscathed. He will be sure to overcome this latest challenge.

But here’s the thing. Wagner’s rebellion ended in a day.

Ukraine’s offensive inside Russia has been going on for over a week. The longer it continues, the more pressure there will be on the Russian leadership and, possibly, the more damage to President Putin’s authority.

In his two and a half decades in power, Mr Putin has cultivated the image of “Mr Security“the only man in this great country who can keep the Russian people safe and secure.

The so-called “special military operation” (total invasion of Ukraine) was presented to the Russian people as a way to improve Russia’s national security.

Two and a half years into the war there is not much sign here of “safety and security”.

There is more Nato on Russia’s borders, as Sweden and Finland have joined the Nato Alliance; Russian cities are regularly attacked by Ukrainian drones; now Ukrainian troops are occupying Russian territory.

With his choice of language, Vladimir Putin is trying to show the Russian public that there is no need to panic.

When he refers to the invasion of Ukraine avoid using the word “invasion”. Instead, he talked about the “situation in the border area” or “events taking place”. The Kremlin leader also called the attack on Ukraine an “outrage”.

What will the Russian president do next?

Don’t expect him to pick up the phone and call Kyiv. Russian officials have made it clear that, following the invasion of Ukraine, they are suspending the very idea of ​​peace talks.

It’s not like there were any big talks scheduled to take place.

In fact, this week the leader of Vladimir Putin announced what his goal is: “… to force the enemy on Russian territory.”

It’s one thing to say. It’s another thing it does. Despite sending reinforcements to the Kursk region, the Russian army has not regained control of this part of Russia.

As I passed the Kremlin on Thursday morning, I stopped in my tracks.

As workers set up chairs and screens for the event, Edith Piaf’s classic No, I don’t regret it (No, I have no regrets) was playing on the big video screen and echoing throughout Red Square.

It was a very difficult time.

Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of remorse for launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

He has no regrets about the decisions he has made since then.

If his public statements reflect his current state of mind, he still believes there is only one outcome to this war: victory for Russia.