The Shock Kursk incursion will not turn the Russians against war

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was conceived in the Kremlin as a short, sharp military operation.

The expectation was that it would take a few days, a few weeks, for Russia to be able to control its neighbor.

That happened about two and a half years ago.

The war in Ukraine continues. It did not go as Moscow intended.

But here’s the thing. Over the past 29 months, we have often heard senior Russian officials say that the project will “go according to plan.”

President Vladimir Putin last said that in May, despite everything that has happened in the last two years: heavy Russian casualties on the battlefield, the destruction of many Russian warships in the Black Sea, drone attacks deep in Russia (even in the Kremlin itself. ), attacks on Russian cities and towns near the border of Ukraine, the mutiny of Wagner’s soldiers who were marching on Moscow.

Now there’s a new addition to the list: Ukraine’s cross-border attack this week on the Russian territory of Kursk.

First, a disclaimer: it is difficult to know exactly what is happening right now in the Sudzha region of the Kursk region. It is not clear how many Ukrainian troops there are, how much territory they have occupied and what their ultimate goal might be.

Today’s edition of the Russian broadsheet Nezavisimaya Gazeta announced: “Events on the Kursk front are shrouded in an infamous fog of war.”

But even in the fog some things are clear.

It is clear that what happened in the Kursk region is further evidence that Russia’s war in Ukraine did not go “according to plan”. The events seem to have surprised the political and military leadership in Russia.

Don’t expect Moscow to agree to that.

Most likely, Russian officials will use the invasion of Ukraine to try to unite the Russian public in the government and support the Kremlin’s official narrative that (a) in this conflict Russia is not the aggressor, and (b) Russia is a fortress besieged by enemies who plan to attack and destroy it.

In fact it was Russia that launched an all-out attack on its neighbors.

Obviously there is a big difference in language. When Russia poured troops across the border into Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin called it a “special military operation” and said Russia was “liberating” villages and towns.

Moscow described Ukrainian troops entering Russia as a “terrorist attack” and an “outrage.”

The attack by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region and the heavy fighting there is a sign that the war is coming closer to home. But will that change Russian public opinion against the war?

That’s not the case.

Last year I visited Belgorod, a Russian region, like Kursk, on the border of Ukraine. There was shelling on the other side of the border. Everyone I met told me that nothing like this had ever happened before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine: before February 2022 there was peace and quiet in Belgorod region.

But instead of concluding that the “special military operation” was a mistake, most of the people I spoke with called for Russia to step up its military and push deeper into Ukrainian territory.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev wants just that. In a social media post today he wrote:

“We can and should take more of the remaining Ukrainian land. [We should go to] Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv. Onward to Kyiv. “

But Dmitry Medvedev cannot call the shots. Vladimir Putin said. We are waiting to see how you react to what has been an amazing few days in southern Russia.