JPMorgan Chase Raises Chances of a US Recession in 2024

As the US economy continues to falter, JPMorgan Chase warns that a recession is not off the table.

In an analyst note published on Wednesday, economists at JPMorgan raised the probability of a recession this year from 25% to 35%, noting that there is also a 45% chance of a recession in the second half of 2025.

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“The inflation of American wages is now falling in a way that is not seen in any other municipality [developed market] the economy,” the note said. “Easing labor market conditions increases confidence both that inflation will slow and that the Fed’s current policy stance is restrictive.”

The paper also said the bank believes the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in September and November 2024.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon doubled down on this forecast in an interview with CNBC, saying he thinks a recession is possible.

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“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there. I’ve always pointed to geopolitics, housing, the deficit, spending, inflation, the election, all of these things are causing confusion in the markets,” he said. “I’m very optimistic that if we have a little recession, even if it’s really tough, we’ll be fine.”

The bank’s forecasts came after last week’s jobs report in which the unemployment rate reached 4.1% in June.

It’s been a volatile week for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq due to growing concerns about the US economy.