How the stage was set for the Russian prisoner exchange

“This is a matter that is best dealt with peacefully.”

It is the phrase chosen by Russian officials when asked to comment on possible East-West trade. Words we have heard for months.

This is how the Kremlin likes it: making deals behind closed doors, “hostage diplomacy” away from the media. The Intelligence Service is talking to the Intelligence Service; government to government.

Until Moscow gets what – or rather – it wants.

But despite the “silence”, there were signals. Something was moving.

In an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson last February, Vladimir Putin talked about Evan Gershkovich, the Wall Street Journal reporter who was arrested in Russia and charged with espionage.

“I am not stopping Mr. Gershkovich from returning to his country,” Mr. Putin said. “We want US special services to think about how they can contribute to achieving the goals that our special services are pursuing.”

It was a public and absurd hint: Moscow was open to a deal.

The Kremlin leader did not mince words. But he made it clear who Russia wanted in return: Vadim Krasikov, the alleged Russian agent serving a life sentence for murder – not in America, but in Germany.

A few days later, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny died in a remote Arctic location. Rumors spread that before his death, there were talks to exchange Mr Navalny, Evan Gershkovich and former US Marine Paul Whelan, all imprisoned in Russia, for Vadim Krasikov in Germany.

Did the German authorities enter into prisoner exchange negotiations?

Fast forward to June. Evan Gershkovich’s closed spy trial – dismissed as a “hoax” by the Wall Street Journal and the US government – finally began in Yekaterinburg. The case was quickly adjourned until mid-August.

But last month, the court unexpectedly brought the second hearing in more than three weeks. At the end of the three-day trial, Evan Gershkovich was convicted and sentenced to 16 years in a penal colony.

On the same day, US-Russian journalist Alsu Kurmasheva was sentenced to six and a half years in prison by a Kazan court. His trial lasted only two days.

Obviously, someone was in a hurry. It was a very strong sign though that a deal had been made, that an exchange was possible. Russian authorities often treat convictions as a prerequisite for any prisoner exchange.

Earlier this week – more signs, and reports that a series of prominent Russian political prisoners have been removed from their penal colonies or detention centers.

Speculation grew. Could these dissidents be part of a larger prisoner trade than initially expected?

News broke in Belarus: the country’s leader, Alexander Lukashenko, agreed to pardon Rico Krieger, a German citizen sentenced to death for terrorism and other crimes. Can he be part of the exchange?

This is the largest East-West prisoner exchange since the Cold War.

Western governments will welcome the release of foreign nationals, as well as the release of some of Russia’s most prominent political prisoners.

Moscow will celebrate the return of its agents.

Both sides will say it’s a good deal.

But if Russia concludes, as it has done in the past, that “hostage diplomacy” works, then worryingly, this is unlikely to be the last time here prisoners – both foreigners and Russians – are used as bargaining chips.