The risk of regional war hangs over talks to stop the Gaza bombing

If the leaked local documents are true, even Israeli defense officials are urging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make a deal and agree to a ceasefire in Gaza.

Since Israeli negotiators last traveled to the Qatari capital for talks, the stakes – and pressures – have grown.

In Israel, the relatives of the hostages still held in Gaza call this the “last chance” to get some of them out alive.

In Gaza, the Hamas-run health ministry – whose figures have been used by the UN and Israel in the past – says the number of people killed in Israeli operations there since the start of the war now exceeds 40,000.

And the US is deploying a second aircraft carrier and a missile-armed submarine to the region, after threats from Iran and its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, to attack Israel in response to the killing of key Hamas and Hezbollah leaders last month.

There is no shortage of incentives for the deal.

And there is no lack of pressure. The US believes that an agreement in Gaza can help calm the entire region.

Visiting Lebanon on Wednesday, US envoy Amos Hochstein said the agreement will also help create conditions for an agreement on the growing border issue between Israel and Hezbollah.

“We have to use this window to take political action and political solutions,” he said. “That time is now.”

His boss, President Joe Biden, seems to be managing expectations. “It’s getting harder,” he told reporters in New Orleans this week, adding, “I’m not giving up.”

With so much to gain, why are the prospects of these negotiations so slim?

First, a red herring: Hamas’s announcement that it will not send delegates to the meeting is unlikely to have much impact.

Negotiations have been indirect, shuttle diplomacy – Hamas representatives do not talk directly to Israel or the US. And the group’s main international base is Doha, where negotiations are ongoing, and where negotiators from Qatar and Egypt have an open line of communication.

The real issue, according to former Israeli hostage negotiator Gershon Baskin, is a lack of motivation on the part of Israeli and Hamas leaders.

“The United States, Egypt and Qatar have decided that they need to change the rules of the game: put an end on the table, put a proposal to close the bridge on the table, and tell Hamas and Israel that they have to do it,” it said.

“[But] it is clear that the arbitrators want this agreement more than the parties, and that is a big problem.”

Chen Avigdori’s wife and 12-year-old daughter were among 251 people abducted by Hamas in Israel’s attack on October 7, in which 1,200 others were killed. They were released in November and he is now on a mission to free the remaining 111 hostages.

“I think they both get it,” he said. “I think that Sinwar does not care about his people. But I think that Mr. Netanyahu passed up other opportunities that Israel already had to sign the agreement. “

For Yahya Sinwar – one of the masterminds of the October 7 attack, who became the political leader of Hamas following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran – some analysts believe that this figure could change.

“I think Sinwar wants to save himself and save Hamas, because they have never been completely destroyed, but militarily they have been defeated and it may turn into a rout,” said Chuck Freilich of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies.

“Netanyahu is in a very difficult situation, because if there is an agreement, there are many chances that he will lose his alliance.”

Benjamin Netanyahu has so far stuck to some red lines – including giving Israel the right to restart the war if later talks on a troop withdrawal and prisoner exchange fail.

Mr Netanyahu’s far-right supporters have vowed to quit the government if, for example, he agrees to release more Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails, in exchange for the return of hostages.

The sticking points facing negotiators are many. But proposals to close some of them have been widely reported in the Israeli media.

For example, Mr. Netanyahu’s insistence that the Israeli army must stay on the border between Gaza and Egypt, in order to prevent armed groups that smuggle weapons, has been answered with solutions involving technology and the involvement of partners on the ground.

Hamas accused Israel of bringing new demands and said the time for negotiations was over. It said it is ready to implement the terms it agreed to last month. Israel denies that it is adding new conditions, describing them as attempts to clarify what has already been agreed.

The international mediators of the agreement – the US, Qatar and Egypt – certainly have some power over both sides, but it may not be enough to force an agreement if the parties themselves do not want it.

“The US and Qatar can push, they can bend, they can offer incentives, they can offer to help create technical solutions,” said Chuck Freilich. “But in the end, it’s up to certain leaders.”

In the end, the fate of these negotiations, of Gaza, of hostages – even the fate of the region itself – will rest in the reckoning of two wise survivors; two men fighting.